This sounds like a very attractive scheme if it works, but as I thought about it, I realized that there is an analogy: The bailout of the banks that were ‘too big to fail’.
After the initial emergency was over, the question of ‘moral hazard’ came into play - why would bankers be careful if they knew that governments would step in with public money of things went wrong, whereas they would get the bonuses they have become accustomed to if all went well.
If we knew that every forgiven loan helped someone in distress or after a run of bad luck (those suffering from Sandy come to mind immediately) there would be no problem.
But as soon as a scheme like this is introduced, its very existence changes society, and it is easy to see that some will plan to take advantage of it.
1. Enterprise Architecture is a discipline responsible for understanding and tracking how the components and activities of an enterprise interact and perform. Its rôle is ensuring that those components and activities are designed, executed and optimized to meet the present and planned intent of the enterprise as expressed and authorized by the Board of Directors.
Then, I thought that EA is not actually responsible for what the solution and technical architects do, so I made a separation, that results in a longer definition.
2. Enterprise Architecture is a discipline responsible for understanding and tracking how the components and activities of an enterprise interact and perform. Its rôle is ensuring that those responsible for implementing and operating processes and systems that execute and optimize these components and activities have the necessary technical and business information to do so in a way that meets the present and planned intent of the enterprise as expressed and authorized by the Board of Directors.
Now, William D. Nordhaus has written a truly devastating critique of their arguments. Taking the six key points made in the article, he delivers a surgical analysis of each one, showing incorrect or misleading answers and describing their mistakes.
Nordhaus is Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University. He has received support for research on the economics of climate change during the last decade from the National Science Foundation, the Department of Energy, and the Glaser Foundation. Other than research associated with these and any future grants, the author declares no conflict of interest.
The footnotes to the article dig down into the detail and play the ball, not the players.
Claude Allegre, former director of the Institute for the Study of the Earth, University of Paris; A geochemist and author of The Climate Lie which is alleged to have 100 actual errors and approximations (in French but Google does a reasonable translation).
J. Scott Armstrong, cofounder of the Journal of Forecasting and the International Journal of Forecasting; Professor of Marketing - University of Pennsylvania.
William Happer, professor of physics, Princeton; Physicist specializing in optics and spectroscopy and Board member, George Marshall Institute which is a recipient of substantial funding from Exxon Mobil.
[All links and keywords below are spaced out. Don’t want to help the spammers get links.]
I have several search columns in TweetDeck on topics I follow. These spam tweets turn up in those searches even though neither the tweet nor the page it eventually leads to mention any of the keywords in my search. My guess would be that this is done by metadata on the pages this type of tweet link redirects through. Any other ideas?
After the initial t.co link, Twitter’s own shortener, there are 5 subsequent redirects that always end up here: h t t p : / / w w w . j u s t z . i n f o / m o b i l e m o n e y m a c h i n e s /
with a title about … W o r k A t H o m e M u m M a k e s £ 4 , 3 9 7 / M o n t h
In one I analyzed, the original Twitter shortened link 301 redirects to h t t p : / / s a i f 4 . c o . c c / b 2 z
which 302 redirects to h t t p : / / 5 0 0 a m a z o n g i f t c a r d . i n f o / i n d e x . p h p ? t = 1 3 2 5 0 4 2 6 3 3 8 8 1
which 302 redirects to h t t p : / / u s y y . n e t / r e d i r e c t . p h p
which 302 redirects to h t t p : / / u s y y . n e t / r e d i r e c t . p h p ? c o o k i e s = t r u e
which finally meta-refresh redirects to the j u s t z . i n f o link given earlier
I found that if I add -“co.cc” to my search terms, it stops some of these, but others (all still leading to the same destination) use other redirect routes. Nothing from the above when added to the TweetDeck Global Filter “Containing words” stops the tweets geeting through. I do report them for spam but that doesn’t stop them appearing in searches. I could put the sender in my TD Global Filter, but as they change regularly, that’s a never ending task.
Anyone have any experience with filtering these pests out?
Come on SCMP, you can do better than this Editorial
South China Morning Post front page: NASA scientists … estimate there is a 1 in 3,200 risk of anyone being hurt by the falling debris.
How we see it Editorial: You and I have a 1 in 3,200 chance of being rained on by the debris from the broken up satellite.
That may be the way How we see it sees it but that is not what a “1 in 3,200 risk of anyone being hurt” means. ’Anyone’ means anyone on Earth, not any SCMP reader. The SCMP may be a fine English-language paper, but I don’t think it’s read by everyone on Earth yet.
A better indication of personal risk might be to mention that nobody has ever been hurt by objects re-entering from space. Let’s hope it stays that way.
Update Sept 23 2011: “The odds of demise-by-satellite for any particular [emphasis added] person among the world’s seven billion people are much lower, on the order of 1-in-trillions, said Nicholas L. Johnson, NASA’s expert on space debris at the Johnson Space Center in Houston.” (NYTimes)
In Hong Kong, we have hurricanes (typhoons as we call theme here) almost every year, often more than one. So far this year we’ve been lucky.
When one comes along, the HK Observatory is almost always blamed for over- or under-warning. It’s impossible to get it right, other than by chance. Here we often see typhoons do unexpected things - changing path, strengthening when they are believed to be near their end, or following a typical Fall path during the height of Summer. A typhoon with 143 mph winds just did that after killing 16 in the Philippines.
Over-warning (“hype”?) is the right approach - Irene might not have abated and then the death toll and damage would have been much worse.
We had a family outing last night - it started as a company-sponsored buffet and ended quite unexpectedly as an awesome art event. The buffet was in a private club. Not one I’m a member of, but one that Sara’s company had booked for the occasion.
My son Jake went wandering and exploring after the meal, and came back full of excitement to drag me away. He took me round an atrium balcony, past some modern sculptures, to a doorway into a darkened room. Inside, there was an amazing stainless-steel head of a Buddha formed in Chinese seal-script. That cannot possibly help you understand what I saw, so here are some pictures:
(All the pictures here were made with an iPhone without flash so they’re not great.)
It was, I suppose, about 5 feet from top to bottom.
Then I became aware of gentle background Buddhist chanting of a type I’ve heard in temples in mainland China, and looked around in the gloom that my eyes were becoming adjusted to. There, around the walls in glass cases, were ancient carvings of Buddhas - the oldest I saw was labelled as from about 1,600 years ago.
On the way to this we had seen many modern sculptures and works of art. Browsing on the way back I was stunned to find what appeared to be an original Picasso, a Dali, a Miro and a Dufy. These were in less-than-optimal lighting and all locked in glass cabinets.
My first thought was that they were copies, but a member of staff confirmed that the founder of the club - a very rich Taiwanese - had bought all of these and that they were originals from his collection. Then he pointed out another corner where there was a van Gogh, a Matisse, a Lowry, a small Warhol sketch, a Monet, a Chagall and a Pisarro.
There were works by Chinese artists as well - some that I had seen publicised during past auctions, some fine modern works, and the usual caligraphy.
Being so unexpected, it was rather overwhelming and certainly exciting.
Then Jake made another discovery that he couldn’t wait to show me - a fantasy library. Fantasy for me anyway, and it must be a family thing because Jake loves books, and my daughter Andrya has a large book collection.
This is somewhere that, if I had time and right of access, I could spend weeks.
The journal Science has just published “Retrieval Practice Produces More Learning than Elaborative Studying with Concept Mapping” (abstract). The New York Times has written about this and provided much more information than the abstract, which is useful to those without a subscription to Science.
The paper reports on experiments done with 200 students (a much larger cohort than most studies) adopting a variety of learning methods. Those using mapping did not come out best: “students who read a passage, then took a test asking them to recall what they had read, retained about 50 percent more of the information a week later than students who used two other methods.” One of the ‘other methods’ was concept mapping.
The students who did not map, but just did a recall test even did better when they were asked to draw a concept map from memory. How galling is that!
What would have been really interesting would have been to compare those who map their study topics and did a retrieval test, against a control group that did just a retrieval test.
The real question
But the real question to me is why is there so much focus on the use of information mapping - whether mind mapping or concept mapping - in education?
Mapping is used as a tool in a wide range of activities. All the references on research into efficacy focus on learning and memory with no mention of the use of mind mapping for planning, creativity, organizing information for reference, business analysis and consulting, collaboration with others, decision making, planning events, staff training, recruitment and induction programs, strategic planning, preparations for detailed business plans, goal setting, problem solving, prioritizing issues, setting up management dashboards, writing, evaluating lessons learned, preparing for and administering meetings, creative facilitation, planning, preparing and giving presentations, project management, planning courses and presenting material and planning and re-organizing web sites.
Who should we prod to undertake that research? It will not be a trivial project.
Here’s a recent on-line conversation I had with a good friend about a scam on “health” bracelets.
My wife (Bless her) is determined to purchase a Chinese health bracelet called Q Ray. Here’s the thing, I don’t see any scientific evidence it works. Apparently it delivers negative ions through 2 balls on the bracelet.
I think it’s all Bull, but my wife is absolutely seduced into believing this stuff. I know this is an off the wall request; but I was wondering if you have access to text that would definitively reveal this Q Ray bracelet as a Yes or No.
I’d heard of this type of thing and knew where to look for a reference to that, but it wasn’t exactly Q-Ray:
Roy: It has all the halmarks of pseudoscience. “….positive and negative energy forces” … meaningless. Ask them for evidence in the form of double-blind randomized controlled trials.
Anyone who makes these types of claims needs to provide good evidence if they are to be credible. People saying “it worked for me” are not enough because of the placebo effect, or those duped into buying not wanting to admit to themselves that they have been duped.
There is a similar thing called Power Bracelet that talks about “work with your body’s natural energy field”. They recently had to issue a statement in Australia that these things did not work, offer refunds and then stop selling them there.
They still sell them in other countries. Shameless.
But d’you know what? Another site in Australia is selling them now on a different domain, but I’ll not give them Google-juice by linking to that here.
Back to Q Ray - I looked a little longer and then hit the bullseye.
Roy: OK, look what I found (I hope she will be convinced by this): The FTC took them to court, won, and they had to pay $64 million in refunds.
Hong Kong’s status as a place where demonstrations are allowed, unlike in mainland China, has resulted in a new HK import: Demonstrations! People are coming from the mainland to Hong Kong, to demonstrate outside the China Liaison Office here without fear of arrest. Apparently they are taken aback when HK police officers sent to monitor their activities offer them stools and water, and were even more surprised when they were allowed to talk to reporters in front of the police, and no one was beaten. You have to wonder what happens when the they get home, though.
Our lad had a school camping week on Lantau Island and had to keep a “Tribal Diary”.
It wasn’t brimming with comments, but one I enjoyed most was “Commitment is important to raft building because if you aren’t committed, the raft will fall apart. We were committed, but the raft fell apart anyway.”
We had a wild boar hunt on our street in April - and it wasn’t April 1st!
City and country are ridiculously close sometimes in Hong Kong, because of the steep hills and imaginative approach to building but even allowing for that, this was extreme. A 60 second walk from our car park back entrance on Comfort Terrace.
You can just about see the pink tranquilizer dart on one, but they didn’t go quietly - it took six hours with nets to finally subdue them to take them away. One “died of stress” and the other was kept for observation and later released “back into the environment”. Not the environment on Comfort Terrace, I presume. And this isn’t the first instance this year. A 50kg wild boar was captured in North Point, a dense urban area, in February. We … are in North Point!
This machine - this lump of corroded metal - fascinated me when I read of it a decade back. Could it really have been made more than 2,100 years ago?
There were tantalizing hints of a complex geared mechanism, but the corrosion made speculation about it little more than wild guesswork. For long after its discovery in 1901, it was thought to be a form of clock.
Then, gamma and x-ray images of its interior were used to attempt a reconstruction, but it wasn’t until 1997, when X-ray tomography was used, that the full purpose of the device was shown to be to predict the movement of various astronomical bodies, as well as which of the games (like the ancient Olympics) were to take place in any given year and possibly even give the timing of eclipses. This is no less than the first known analogue computer.
The tomography images meant that a working brass reconstruction could be attempted and this was eventually presented in the National Hellenic Research Foundation in Athens in 2007. There’s another article about it here.
It’s not just the mechanism that tomography revealed. There were engravings visible on the original corroded artifact, but this advanced imaging revealed a lot more of the inscription, and this helped to confirm many of the details.
But now, amazingly, a working device with the same functions - but not the same appearance - has been constructed in Lego!
Update: Ambling around The National Archeological Museum in Athens in July 2011, I stopped dead in my tracks as I came face-to-face with the Antikythera device. I had forgotten that this is where it was displayed, and this was a highlight of this year’s summer holiday.
WikIT helps knowledge workers tame the torrent of information that they have to deal with daily. It’s for individuals, small businesses and even large enterprises.
User comments suggest that we may be getting something right: ”Oh!Wow!Thanks a ton!! :)”; "what a phenomenal resource"; ”way cool”; "VERY helpful! Thank you!!!"; ”helpful mindmapping info”; "All you ever wanted to know about mind mapping software but were afraid to ask http". (See “Satisfied users”)
Wikis are normally very text oriented, but WikIT uses mind maps as an added navigation layer. All the usual wiki access methods are here, but there are interactive mind maps as well to give a visual overview. Take a look round!