Small thoughts

HOW TO SHARPEN PENCILS: The People's Bailout

Fri, 09 Nov 2012 04:16:00 -0500

HOW TO SHARPEN PENCILS: The People's Bailout:

This sounds like a very attractive scheme if it works, but as I thought about it, I realized that there is an analogy: The bailout of the banks that were ‘too big to fail’.

After the initial emergency was over, the question of ‘moral hazard’ came into play - why would bankers be careful if they knew that governments would step in with public money of things went wrong, whereas they would get the bonuses they have become accustomed to if all went well.

If we knew that every forgiven loan helped someone in distress or after a run of bad luck (those suffering from Sandy come to mind immediately) there would be no problem.

But as soon as a scheme like this is introduced, its very existence changes society, and it is easy to see that some will plan to take advantage of it.

The funniest example ever of contextual advertising gone wrong

Fri, 26 Oct 2012 00:12:50 -0400

Musing on definitions of Enterprise Architecture

Sat, 10 Mar 2012 04:26:00 -0500

Two possible definitions of EA

1. Enterprise Architecture is a discipline responsible for understanding and tracking how the components and activities of an enterprise interact and perform. Its rôle is ensuring that those components and activities are designed, executed and optimized to meet the present and planned intent of the enterprise as expressed and authorized by the Board of Directors.

Then, I thought that EA is not actually responsible for what the solution and technical architects do, so I made a separation, that results in a longer definition.

2. Enterprise Architecture is a discipline responsible for understanding and tracking how the components and activities of an enterprise interact and perform. Its rôle is ensuring that those responsible for implementing and operating processes and systems that execute and optimize these components and activities have the necessary technical and business information to do so in a way that meets the present and planned intent of the enterprise as expressed and authorized by the Board of Directors.

Roy

Powerful response to the "16 concerned scientists"

Tue, 28 Feb 2012 23:12:58 -0500

Remember the article in The Wall Street Journal by the “16 concerned scientists” writing of their skepticism on climate change?

Earlier I blogged about the people involved, and updated the post several times with follow-on responses.

Now, William D. Nordhaus has written a truly devastating critique of their arguments. Taking the six key points made in the article, he delivers a surgical analysis of each one, showing incorrect or misleading answers and describing their mistakes.

Nordhaus is Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University. He has received support for research on the economics of climate change during the last decade from the National Science Foundation, the Department of Energy, and the Glaser Foundation. Other than research associated with these and any future grants, the author declares no conflict of interest.

The footnotes to the article dig down into the detail and play the ball, not the players.

Roy

The 16 concerned scientists - who they are

Fri, 27 Jan 2012 11:22:00 -0500

No Need to Panic About Global Warming say sixteen scientists. Judge for yourself how many are qualified to opine on climate science.

Claude Allegre, former director of the Institute for the Study of the Earth, University of Paris; A geochemist and author of The Climate Lie which is alleged to have 100 actual errors and approximations (in French but Google does a reasonable translation).

J. Scott Armstrong, cofounder of the Journal of Forecasting and the International Journal of Forecasting; Professor of Marketing - University of Pennsylvania.

Jan Breslow M.D., Senior Attending Physician, and Head of the Laboratory of Biochemical Genetics and Metabolism, Rockefeller University.

Roger Cohen, fellow, American Physical Society; Manager, Strategic Planning and Programs ExxonMobil Corporation (retired).

Edward David, member, National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Sciences; Educated as an electrical engineer

William Happer, professor of physics, Princeton; Physicist specializing in optics and spectroscopy and Board member, George Marshall Institute which is a recipient of substantial funding from Exxon Mobil.

Michael Kelly, professor of technology, University of Cambridge, U.K.; Professor, Group:Solid State Electronics and Nanoscale Science. Dept. of Electrical Engineering

William Kininmonth, former head of climate research at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology; Meteorologist. Score 1!

Richard Lindzen, professor of atmospheric sciences, MIT; Interesting and relevant link.

James McGrath, professor of chemistry, Virginia Technical University; current research interests are focused in the area of synthesis and characterization of high performance matrix polymers.

Rodney Nichols, former president and CEO of the New York Academy of Sciences; A distinguished career as an advisor and leader, but not a climate scientist.

Burt Rutan, aerospace engineer, designer of Voyager and SpaceShipOne.

Harrison H. Schmitt, Apollo 17 astronaut and former U.S. senator; A Geologist.

Nir Shaviv, professor of astrophysics, Hebrew University, Jerusalem; An astrophysicist who attributes GW to cosmic rays.

Henk Tennekes, former director, Royal Dutch Meteorological Service. Score 2!

Antonio Zichichi, president of the World Federation of Scientists, Geneva. Italian physicist who has worked in the field of nuclear physics.

There are many distinguished people in this list, but precious few researchers in climate science - so this looks like an argument-from-authority.

If it’s an argument from authority these gentlemen want, it’s telling that “[d]espite seven months of intense effort to recruit physicists to sign a politically motivated petition disputing anthropogenic climate change, a mere, 0.45% of the American Physical Society‘s 47,000 members signed on.”

Update: Jan 31 2012 - More on that Wall Street Journal article

Dismal Science at the Wall Street Journal from Peter Frumhoff, Director of Science & Policy at the Union of Concerned Scientists

Remarkable Editorial Bias on Climate Science at the Wall Street Journal from Peter Gleick, in Forbes

While temperatures rise, denialists reach lower from Phil Plait, at Discover Magazine

Update: Feb 2 2012

The Latest Denialist Plea for Climate Change Inaction A far better analysis of the background of The Sixteen than mine, with a breakdown of their arguments, and great comments.

Reactions on Twitter to this Tumblr piece

@jaumejosa: Els 16 ‘científics del clima’ que dubte de la causa antropogènica del canvi climàtic http://t.co/cRXo7ztc

@jrwiese: RT @roygrubb: Global Warming is Real & WSJ http://t.co/UCHpnN5i more:http://t.co/uRAnZvBs

@PlanetSpin1: RT @greendig: Details on 16 “scientists” who say #global warming isn’t man-made http://t.co/e8m6Ombu @WSJ should be ashamed!

@Mayfly1: RT @greendig: Details on 16 “scientists” who say #global warming isn’t man-made http://t.co/WO34o6VT @WSJ should be ashamed!

@DurbanDiary: RT @greendig: Details on 16 “scientists” who say #global warming isn’t man-made http://t.co/t1ObtRhz @WSJ should be ashamed!

@jeffkart: RT @greendig: Details on 16 “scientists” who say #global warming isn’t man-made http://t.co/aTSfPtjU @WSJ should be ashamed!

@greendig: Details on 16 “scientists” who say #global warming isn’t man-made http://t.co/aTSfPtjU @WSJ should be ashamed!

@cmcgovern: @PaddyJManning I assume it’s these guys you mean: http://t.co/mBTYzCmf @sbow82 @desmond_brennan @john_mcguirk @s8mb

@Mtl4u2: Hmmm! About those 16 scientists http://t.co/vFblmRnH who sign this WSJ (cough) “article”. http://t.co/uaKWvrzD

@MichaelEMann: @fivethirtyeight Nate: here’s an assessment of the 16 “Concerned Scientists” who signed their name to the WSJ op-ed: http://t.co/lAnCV9lT

@PAcleanAir: @KramerSierraPA Check: Busted! The 16 “Concerned Scientists” who signed their name to recent denialist WSJ op-ed http://t.co/NcAkjz15

@PAcleanAir: @busyguyinPhilly Check: Busted! The 16 “Concerned Scientists” who signed their name to recent denialist WSJ op-ed http://t.co/NcAkjz15

@PAcleanAir: MT @alannogee: Busted! The 16 “Concerned Scientists” who signed their name to recent denialist WSJ op-ed Via @UCSUSA http://t.co/NcAkjz15

@PegMitchell1: @WSJ shame on u! MT @MichaelEMann: @UCSUSA “Concerned Scientists” who signed name to recent denialist op-ed http://t.co/3K2aj4bB #climate

@miriksmit: Guess… “The 16 “Concerned Scientists” who signed their name to recent denialist WSJ op-ed: Who are they?” bit.ly/yJBHgS

@aquaken: RT @MichaelEMann: @UCSUSA The 16 “Concerned Scientists” who signed #climate denial WSJ op-ed: Who are they? http://t.co/zkRGeUyu

@apollo18: RT @MichaelEMann: The 16 “Concerned Scientists” who signed their name to recent denialist WSJ op-ed: Who are they? http://t.co/W892ybQM

@jknoxwhite: RT @careyalison: Who are those 16 scientists who signed the WSJ’s climate denial op-ed? What are their credentials? http://t.co/GeleDnkq via @MichaelEMann

@careyalison: Who are those 16 scientists who signed the WSJ’s climate denial op-ed? What are their credentials? http://t.co/GeleDnkq via @MichaelEMann

@alannogee: Busted! The 16 “Concerned Scientists” who signed their name to recent denialist WSJ op-ed Via @MichaelEMann @UCSUSA http://t.co/CwgEGq8y

@kellyrigg: MT @MichaelEMann: @UCSUSA The 16 “Concerned Scientists” who signed recent #climate WSJ op-ed: Who are they? http://t.co/F0FZxmTu

@effusing: About the latest attack from the folks that bring you climate change FUD. http://t.co/smtXhB1E #climatechange #globalwarming

@MeganPanatier: RT @deepseanews: Small thoughts: The 16 concerned scientists - who they are - roygrubb: http://t.co/o7maYp93

@dwilfrid: So who are 16 scientists from the WSJ hit piece on climate change? http://t.co/G7lGS0OI

@deepseanews: Small thoughts: The 16 concerned scientists - who they are - roygrubb: http://t.co/o7maYp93

@richmanwisco: RT @MichaelEMann The 16 “Concerned Scientists” who signed their name to recent denialist WSJ op-ed: Who are they? http://t.co/Fy9PGlQF

@MichaelEMann: @MichaelEMann @UCSUSA The 16 “Concerned Scientists” who signed their name to recent denialist WSJ op-ed: Who are they? http://t.co/lAnCV9lT

Can you help me find a way to block this kind of spam on Twitter?

Fri, 30 Dec 2011 04:24:14 -0500

Can you help me block this kind of spam on Twitter? Tweets that just have a name and a link like this:

@ausershandle http://t.co/xxxxxxxx

[All links and keywords below are spaced out. Don’t want to help the spammers get links.]

I have several search columns in TweetDeck on topics I follow. These spam tweets turn up in those searches even though neither the tweet nor the page it eventually leads to mention any of the keywords in my search. My guess would be that this is done by metadata on the pages this type of tweet link redirects through. Any other ideas?

After the initial t.co link, Twitter’s own shortener, there are 5 subsequent redirects that always end up here:
h t t p : / / w w w . j u s t z . i n f o / m o b i l e m o n e y m a c h i n e s /

with a title about …
W o r k A t H o m e M u m M a k e s £ 4 , 3 9 7 / M o n t h

In one I analyzed, the original Twitter shortened link 301 redirects to
h t t p : / / s a i f 4 . c o . c c / b 2 z

which 302 redirects to
h t t p : / / 5 0 0 a m a z o n g i f t c a r d . i n f o / i n d e x . p h p ? t = 1 3 2 5 0 4 2 6 3 3 8 8 1

which 302 redirects to
h t t p : / / u s y y . n e t / r e d i r e c t . p h p

which 302 redirects to
h t t p : / / u s y y . n e t / r e d i r e c t . p h p ? c o o k i e s = t r u e

which finally meta-refresh redirects to
the j u s t z . i n f o link given earlier

I found that if I add -“co.cc” to my search terms, it stops some of these, but others (all still leading to the same destination) use other redirect routes. Nothing from the above when added to the TweetDeck Global Filter “Containing words” stops the tweets geeting through. I do report them for spam but that doesn’t stop them appearing in searches. I could put the sender in my TD Global Filter, but as they change regularly, that’s a never ending task.

Anyone have any experience with filtering these pests out?

Roy

mathhombre: Like this concept map! Anyone know the original...

Thu, 29 Dec 2011 05:24:27 -0500

mathhombre:

Like this concept map! Anyone know the original source?

Although it’s a mind map, I agree it’s a beaut!

szymon: Keaton music typewriter

Tue, 18 Oct 2011 03:20:19 -0400

szymon:

Keaton music typewriter

Come on SCMP, you can do better than this Editorial

Thu, 22 Sep 2011 00:40:00 -0400

South China Morning Post front page: NASA scientists … estimate there is a 1 in 3,200 risk of anyone being hurt by the falling debris.

How we see it Editorial: You and I have a 1 in 3,200 chance of being rained on by the debris from the broken up satellite.

That may be the way How we see it sees it but that is not what a “1 in 3,200 risk of anyone being hurt” means. ’Anyone’ means anyone on Earth, not any SCMP reader. The SCMP may be a fine English-language paper, but I don’t think it’s read by everyone on Earth yet.

A better indication of personal risk might be to mention that nobody has ever been hurt by objects re-entering from space. Let’s hope it stays that way.

Update Sept 23 2011: “The odds of demise-by-satellite for any particular [emphasis added] person among the world’s seven billion people are much lower, on the order of 1-in-trillions, said Nicholas L. Johnson, NASA’s expert on space debris at the Johnson Space Center in Houston.” (NYTimes)

Roy

Hurricane Irene and "hype"

Mon, 29 Aug 2011 23:33:00 -0400

In Hong Kong, we have hurricanes (typhoons as we call theme here) almost every year, often more than one. So far this year we’ve been lucky.

When one comes along, the HK Observatory is almost always blamed for over- or under-warning. It’s impossible to get it right, other than by chance. Here we often see typhoons do unexpected things - changing path, strengthening when they are believed to be near their end, or following a typical Fall path during the height of Summer. A typhoon with 143 mph winds just did that after killing 16 in the Philippines.

Over-warning (“hype”?) is the right approach - Irene might not have abated and then the death toll and damage would have been much worse.

Roy

Proving atheists wrong with science. Or not.

Thu, 28 Apr 2011 04:06:02 -0400

This intriguing little item showed up on the web recently:

It’s hard to know where to begin with this. Well, no it’s not really …

Apparently some who take the scriptures literally neither sweat nor urinate. Unless they think their urine and other excreta are held in vast tanks, never to be returned to the water cycle.

And even my young son knows better than to relate the number of people on earth at present (or more accurately in 1999) to the period that any form of life has existed on the planet.

Either way, it’s a fail.

Roy

Mail Rail under London

Wed, 20 Apr 2011 05:50:29 -0400

Engrossing and suspenseful tale of the exploration of the now unused Mail Rail in London. Gripping pictures as well.

Roy

A most unexpected evening

Sat, 26 Mar 2011 03:35:00 -0400

We had a family outing last night - it started as a company-sponsored buffet and ended quite unexpectedly as an awesome art event. The buffet was in a private club. Not one I’m a member of, but one that Sara’s company had booked for the occasion.

My son Jake went wandering and exploring after the meal, and came back full of excitement to drag me away. He took me round an atrium balcony, past some modern sculptures, to a doorway into a darkened room. Inside, there was an amazing stainless-steel head of a Buddha formed in Chinese seal-script. That cannot possibly help you understand what I saw, so here are some pictures:

(All the pictures here were made with an iPhone without flash so they’re not great.)

It was, I suppose, about 5 feet from top to bottom.

Then I became aware of gentle background Buddhist chanting of a type I’ve heard in temples in mainland China, and looked around in the gloom that my eyes were becoming adjusted to. There, around the walls in glass cases, were ancient carvings of Buddhas - the oldest I saw was labelled as from about 1,600 years ago.

On the way to this we had seen many modern sculptures and works of art. Browsing on the way back I was stunned to find what appeared to be an original Picasso, a Dali, a Miro and a Dufy. These were in less-than-optimal lighting and all locked in glass cabinets.

My first thought was that they were copies, but a member of staff confirmed that the founder of the club - a very rich Taiwanese - had bought all of these and that they were originals from his collection. Then he pointed out another corner where there was a van Gogh, a Matisse, a Lowry, a small Warhol sketch, a Monet, a Chagall and a Pisarro.

There were works by Chinese artists as well - some that I had seen publicised during past auctions, some fine modern works, and the usual caligraphy.

Being so unexpected, it was rather overwhelming and certainly exciting.

Then Jake made another discovery that he couldn’t wait to show me - a fantasy library. Fantasy for me anyway, and it must be a family thing because Jake loves books, and my daughter Andrya has a large book collection.

This is somewhere that, if I had time and right of access, I could spend weeks.

Roy

Hong Kong government fails to act on air pollution - yet again

Thu, 03 Mar 2011 01:58:52 -0500

March 2011: Hong Kong government hands out HK$6,000/adult permanent resident. I’d rather have two extra years of life:

“Curbing air pollution in major European cities could save 19,000 lives per year, add almost two years to local life expectancy and save 31.5 billion euros (43.4 billion dollars) in health costs and work absenteeism, an EU-funded study said on Wednesday.”

“The nearly three-year probe … looked at 25 cities in 12 European Union (EU) countries…”

Again and again, Chief Executives of Hong Kong have promised action on pollution in their annual speeches - first Tung Chee Wah, then Donald Tsang.

And yet the air gets worse every year.

Mind and concept mapping efficacy

Thu, 20 Jan 2011 23:43:00 -0500

Does mapping help learning?

The journal Science has just published “Retrieval Practice Produces More Learning than Elaborative Studying with Concept Mapping” (abstract). The New York Times has written about this and provided much more information than the abstract, which is useful to those without a subscription to Science.

The paper reports on experiments done with 200 students (a much larger cohort than most studies) adopting a variety of learning methods. Those using mapping did not come out best: “students who read a passage, then took a test asking them to recall what they had read, retained about 50 percent more of the information a week later than students who used two other methods.” One of the ‘other methods’ was concept mapping.

The students who did not map, but just did a recall test even did better when they were asked to draw a concept map from memory. How galling is that!

What would have been really interesting would have been to compare those who map their study topics and did a retrieval test, against a control group that did just a retrieval test.

The real question

But the real question to me is why is there so much focus on the use of information mapping - whether mind mapping or concept mapping - in education?

Mapping is used as a tool in a wide range of activities. All the references on research into efficacy focus on learning and memory with no mention of the use of mind mapping for planning, creativity, organizing information for reference, business analysis and consulting, collaboration with others, decision making, planning events, staff training, recruitment and induction programs, strategic planning, preparations for detailed business plans, goal setting, problem solving, prioritizing issues, setting up management dashboards, writing, evaluating lessons learned, preparing for and administering meetings, creative facilitation, planning, preparing and giving presentations, project management, planning courses and presenting material and planning and re-organizing web sites.

Who should we prod to undertake that research? It will not be a trivial project.

Woobusters! and the bracelets scams

Wed, 05 Jan 2011 23:07:00 -0500

Here’s a recent on-line conversation I had with a good friend about a scam on “health” bracelets.

My wife (Bless her) is determined to purchase a Chinese health bracelet called Q Ray. Here’s the thing, I don’t see any scientific evidence it works. Apparently it delivers negative ions through 2 balls on the bracelet.

I think it’s all Bull, but my wife is absolutely seduced into believing this stuff. I know this is an off the wall request; but I was wondering if you have access to text that would definitively reveal this Q Ray bracelet as a Yes or No.

I’d heard of this type of thing and knew where to look for a reference to that, but it wasn’t exactly Q-Ray:

Roy: It has all the halmarks of pseudoscience. “….positive and negative energy forces” … meaningless. Ask them for evidence in the form of double-blind randomized controlled trials.

Anyone who makes these types of claims needs to provide good evidence if they are to be credible. People saying “it worked for me” are not enough because of the placebo effect, or those duped into buying not wanting to admit to themselves that they have been duped.

There is a similar thing called Power Bracelet that talks about “work with your body’s natural energy field”. They recently had to issue a statement in Australia that these things did not work, offer refunds and then stop selling them there.

They still sell them in other countries. Shameless.

But d’you know what? Another site in Australia is selling them now on a different domain, but I’ll not give them Google-juice by linking to that here.

Back to Q Ray - I looked a little longer and then hit the bullseye.

Roy: OK, look what I found (I hope she will be convinced by this): The FTC took them to court, won, and they had to pay $64 million in refunds.

Q-Ray Bracelet Marketed with Preposterous Claims, Stephen Barrett, M.D.

Marketers of Q-Ray Ionized Bracelet Charged by FTC

Court Rules In FTC’s Favor In Q-Ray Bracelet Case

So my friend cam back with

Thanks a lot Roy; I’ll get to convincing my wife

Roy: I’d be interested to know how she responds.

Then today, this came through:

Thanks Roy, your information regarding the Q Ray bracelet nonsense worked on my wife.

Updated Jan 6 2010 21:33 Filing of Class-Action Lawsuit Regarding Power Balance Bracelets and The Italian Competition Authority has decided to penalize companies Power Balance Town Sport and Italy, respectively, with fines of € 300 thousand and 50 thousand, to be attributed to the neoprene, and silicone bracelets and necklaces to mark “Power Balance”, ” qualities, properties and effects on balance, the strength and stamina, not true.” (Google Translate rendition of the original Italian.)

New York as few have ever seen it. How long before this type of...

Thu, 30 Dec 2010 05:22:43 -0500

New York as few have ever seen it. How long before this type of flying is forbidden?

From a post by Aaron Saenz.

Brilliant video of close-to-ground mountain flying. From a post...

Thu, 30 Dec 2010 05:16:18 -0500

Brilliant video of close-to-ground mountain flying.

From a post by Aaron Saenz.

Anything can happen in China

Sat, 18 Dec 2010 00:27:31 -0500

Fake eggs on sale! You can’t imagine they could make a very convincing-looking egg for less than it costs to keep chickens, but apparently they can.

“To get rich is glorious!”

A new Hong Kong import

Sat, 18 Dec 2010 00:26:06 -0500

Hong Kong’s status as a place where demonstrations are allowed, unlike in mainland China, has resulted in a new HK import: Demonstrations! People are coming from the mainland to Hong Kong, to demonstrate outside the China Liaison Office here without fear of arrest. Apparently they are taken aback when HK police officers sent to monitor their activities offer them stools and water, and were even more surprised when they were allowed to talk to reporters in front of the police, and no one was beaten. You have to wonder what happens when the they get home, though.